The Quantum Maths Got Cheaper
Researchers competing in a public challenge run through Eigen Labs' ecdsa.fail tool halved the quantum resource benchmark for a key operation in attacking Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures, per The Block, with Decrypt reporting that AI agents were among the competitors driving the reduction and citing an ~86% cumulative cost cut over roughly two months. StarkWare co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson argued the pace of improvement means published quantum-safety timelines need shortening. The optimisations reduce the theoretical requirements; no machine capable of running the attack exists.
Q-Day: the number just got cut in half
Two days ago, a company with something to sell put a date on breaking Bitcoin.
Today's version is harder to dismiss.
A public challenge — run through a tool called ecdsa.fail, open to anyone — spent two months attacking one question: how cheaply could a quantum computer do the key step in breaking Bitcoin's signatures?
More than a hundred researchers competed. Some of the entrants were AI agents.
Result: the benchmark Google set was cut in half. The estimated cost of the step fell 86% since the challenge began.
Nobody built a quantum computer. They got sharper at the maths.
Every "safe until 2035" estimate has two parts: how fast the machines improve, and how expensive the attack stays.
The second part just halved. In two months. Through open competition, with the results published.
StarkWare's co-founder said it plainly: if the cost keeps falling like this, every timeline you've been quoted needs cutting.
He's talking his book too — his firm sells the post-quantum tools. Discount accordingly.
But notice what this week actually was.
Tuesday, a vendor claimed the machine arrives around 2028. Today, open research made the attack cheaper to run when it does.
The machine isn't here. The maths is getting ready for it from both ends.
Related storylines
- Bitcoin quantum threat responseQuantum threat benchmarks for Bitcoin/Ethereum cryptographic attacks
3 sources
- Has the Quantum Threat Reached Bitcoin’s (BTC) Doorstep? US Giant Company Announces Latest Data! · en.bitcoinsistemi.com · T2
- AI Agents Just Slashed the Cost of a Quantum Attack on Bitcoin · decrypt.co · T2
- Researchers halve quantum resource benchmark for key operation in Bitcoin, Ethereum attack · theblock.co · T1