Citi Flags Quantum Risk for Bitcoin
Growing quantum computing capabilities are forcing Bitcoin and the broader crypto industry to urgently plan and implement post-quantum cryptographic defenses.
Citi analysts identified quantum computing risk as a problem specific to Bitcoin's codebase rather than Ethereum's. Tim Draper separately addressed Bitcoin's quantum-era security, arguing Bitcoin remains safer than banks despite the risk.
Quantum Risk: the upgrade problem is harder than the cryptography problem
Jameson Lopp, who co-authored one of the actual proposals to address this, estimates a full Bitcoin upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography could take a decade. SegWit took eight and a half years. Taproot took seven and a half.
A quantum computer powerful enough to crack a Bitcoin private key in nine minutes doesn't politely pause for a decade of decentralised consensus.
Tim Draper's 'banks are worse' argument isn't wrong, exactly. But it misses the point Lopp is making: banks can upgrade orders of magnitude faster precisely because someone is in charge. Bitcoin's strength — nobody controls it — is also why it can't move quickly when it needs to.
The cryptography problem may be solvable. The governance speed problem is the harder one.
2 sources
- The quantum clock is ticking: it's Bitcoin's problem, not Ethereum's · coindesk.com · T1
- Tim Draper Explains Why Bitcoin Is Safer Than Banks in the Quantum Era · cryptopotato.com · T2