Senate Shelves CLARITY Act as Ethics Standoff Over Trump's Crypto Interests Drains the 2026 Window

The CLARITY Act is advancing through a turbulent Senate gauntlet, with shifting passage odds, mounting opposition, and hard recess deadlines defining its path to crypto market structure law.

The Senate set aside the CLARITY Act this week for federal nominations and a Russia sanctions bill, after Majority Leader Thune said he doesn't expect the crypto bill to pass before the August 8 recess. Polymarket odds of 2026 passage sit near 37%, down from 82% in February. Democrats are withholding the seven needed votes over ethics provisions tied to President Trump's crypto interests; SEC Chair Atkins says the agency will write rules if Congress doesn't.