CLARITY Act Senate Passage Odds Fall Further as Democratic Opposition, DOJ Concerns, and August Recess Deadline Converge

The CLARITY Act is advancing through a turbulent Senate gauntlet, with shifting passage odds, mounting opposition, and hard recess deadlines defining its path to crypto market structure law.

The CLARITY Act faces a critical Senate juncture as the August recess approaches, with passage odds falling amid multiple unresolved disputes. Democrats continue to oppose the bill citing Trump's personal crypto earnings — Senator Warren has demanded disclosure of his 2026 crypto income — while the DOJ's criminal division has raised money-laundering concerns. Senator Lummis has warned that Senate delay could push crypto regulation to 2030, and Polymarket prediction odds for passage have dropped to a record low.