Galaxy Opposes JPMorgan Dilution Plan for Strategy
Galaxy opposed JPMorgan's proposed dilution plan for Strategy, stating the approach may not resolve the company's structural issues. JPMorgan had previously warned that Strategy's new capital framework could convert the firm from a net Bitcoin buyer to a net seller.
Story timeline · 29 days
Latest: Galaxy publicly opposed JPMorgan's dilution plan for Strategy, adding a major institutional voice to the previously reported two-way risk warning from JPMorgan.
Story timeline · 29 days
- Jul 6, 20268Michael Saylor Releases Bitcoin Tracker Signal, Potentially Preceding Another BTC Purchase
Saylor released a new Bitcoin Tracker post on July 6, historically preceding confirmed BTC purchases; he also published a statement on Bitcoin's four-year cycle and released a nine-point thesis on Bitcoin's next decade.
- Jul 5, 20265· this storyGalaxy Opposes JPMorgan Dilution Plan for Strategy
- Jul 5, 20268Strategy Introduces Digital Credit Capital Framework, Ending 'Never Sell' Bitcoin Policy
Strategy's Digital Credit Capital Framework was formally announced, with additional coverage confirming the 'never sell' policy is ended and authorizing BTC sales alongside a $2B share repurchase program.
- Jul 4, 20267Strategy Capital Framework Overhaul Raises Questions About Future BTC Buying
Analysis published suggesting BTC's next cycle may require buyers beyond Saylor as Strategy's new authorized-sale framework changes its role as an accumulation vehicle.
- Jul 3, 20265Michael Saylor Highlights MSTR Performance Metric Versus Big Tech
Saylor reiterated MSTR's performance framing versus Big Tech without introducing new metrics beyond those previously reported.
- Jul 3, 20265Bitwise Analyst Questions Strategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Model Relevance
Bitwise's Matt Hougan separately argued that Strategy's BTC era may be fading as an institutional proxy model, while Bitwise also characterized the STRC selloff as a cycle-bottom signal.
- Jul 3, 20267BTIG Lowers Strategy Price Target to $250; JPMorgan Warns Bitcoin Sale Policy Creates Two-Way Risk
BTIG cut its Strategy price target to $250 while maintaining a buy rating, and JPMorgan formally warned the new BTC sale policy could turn Strategy from a Bitcoin buyer into a seller, adding sell-side analysis to the ongoing capital framework debate.
- Jul 2, 20268Strategy and Strive Accumulate 6,989 BTC via Preferred Equity Proceeds in June
Confirmed 6,989 BTC purchased by Strategy and Strive via preferred equity raises; preferred stock treasury market quantified at $13B.
- Jul 1, 20267Strategy Authorizes BTC Sales, $2B Buyback; New Capital Framework Sparks Debate
New details on the capital plan emerged including Strategy shares falling 8% post-announcement and ongoing analyst debate about the framework's sustainability.
- Jun 30, 20269Strategy Authorizes Up to $1.25B BTC Sale, Announces $2B Buyback and New Capital Framework
Strategy formally authorized up to $1.25B in Bitcoin sales and unveiled a $2B stock buyback alongside a new capital framework, breaking its longstanding no-sell posture.
- Jun 29, 20267Novogratz and Galaxy CEO Flag Strategy Risk as BTC Confidence Signal at $59K Support
Novogratz explicitly cited MicroStrategy confidence crisis as driving BTC toward $45K support test; Galaxy CEO set $59K as critical support level.
- Jun 29, 20268Strategy mNAV Below 1, $13B+ Unrealized BTC Loss; Saylor Posts Bitcoin Tracker Signaling Potential Buy
Saylor posted new Bitcoin Tracker update today, widely read as signaling an imminent accumulation disclosure; $3B potential BTC sale to cover dividend also reported alongside $13B+ unrealized loss data.
- Jun 28, 20267Strategy mNAV Falls Below 1; STRC Trades 25% Below Par as Unrealized BTC Losses Exceed $13B
Strategy mNAV confirmed below 1 for the first time; STRC now trades 25% below par; MSTR fell from a high of $540 to $82; unrealized BTC loss figure cited at over $13B.
- Jun 27, 20267Strategy mNAV Falls Below 1; STRC at New Low as BTC Unrealized Losses Exceed $13B
Strategy mNAV confirmed below 1 and seven-month duration of sub-NAV trading disclosed; $14B loss figure and STRC-funded BTC buying debate added today.
- Jun 27, 20267MSTR BTC-Per-Share Dilution Risk Analyzed as Funding Edge Erodes
BTC-per-share catastrophic collapse risk and funding edge erosion analysis added today alongside the prior STRC stress and unrealized loss reporting.
- Jun 27, 20266Strategy Reports $14B Bitcoin Loss as Cardone Capital Uses Real Estate Income to Accumulate BTC
Unrealized loss figure updated to $14B today; Cardone Capital's real estate-funded BTC accumulation model added as a new angle.
- Jun 26, 20268Strategy STRC Slides 26% Below Par; MSTR Hits 16-Month Low as Unrealized BTC Losses Exceed $13B
STRC slides 26% below par and MSTR hits a 16-month low at $85; unrealized BTC losses reported at over $13B; a securities lawsuit filed against MSTR; a director sold shares at the record-low price.
- Jun 25, 20268Strategy and STRC Under Pressure as Bitcoin Holdings Show $12.6B Unrealized Loss
MSTR shares fell below $100 to a two-year low, unrealized losses widened to $12.6B, and analysts publicly called for a halt to BTC purchases; STRC hit new lows.
- Jun 24, 20265CryptoQuant Warns Strategy to Pause BTC Purchases; MSTR Proxy Analysis Published
CryptoQuant published direct recommendation for Strategy to pause BTC purchases and rebuild cash reserves.
- Jun 23, 20266Benchmark Compares Strategy to Terra Luna Amid STRC Pressure
Benchmark analyst published a formal Terra Luna comparison to Strategy; no new quantitative data beyond prior reporting.
- Jun 23, 20268Strategy Buys 520 BTC for $34.9M; USD Reserve Raised to $1.4B
Strategy confirmed its 113th Bitcoin purchase of 520 BTC at $67,068 per coin, raising total holdings to 847,363 BTC and USD Reserve to $1.4 billion.
- Jun 22, 20268Strategy Accumulates 716,000+ BTC Since 2022; STRC Preferred Stock Under Pressure
Saylor confirmed Strategy holds 846,842 BTC worth $54.3B with $9.7B unrealized loss and hinted at further purchases; STRC stress context continues.
- Jun 21, 20268Strategy STRC Preferred Stock Falls Below Par; Saylor Cites $48B Reserve Surplus
STRC fell below par with a $10B margin call impact on the broader BTC-backed preferred share market; Saylor highlighted $48.3B in BTC reserves exceeding debt; analysts continued to question STRC survival through 2026.
- Jun 20, 20266Strategy STRC Preferred Stock Under Pressure; Saylor Defends Against Terra Comparisons and Systemic Risk Claims
STRC decline continued; analysts compared structure to Terra death loop; Strive CEO attributed sell-off to leverage liquidation not credit failure; Bloomberg called for instrument to be retired.
- Jun 19, 20264TECHINASIA: Strategy Stock Sinks Alongside BTC
TechInAsia covered Strategy's stock decline correlated with BTC price weakness.
- Jun 19, 20267Strategy STRC Preferred Stock Falls to Record Low, Compressing BTC Funding Channel
STRC fell further to a record low with increased trading volume, and analysts identified this as compressing Strategy's Bitcoin acquisition funding channel.
- Jun 18, 20267Strategy Bitcoin Reserves Cover 32 Years of Dividends; Preferred Stock Hits Record Low
Strategy confirmed its BTC reserves are sufficient for 32 years of dividends; Saylor confirmed ongoing BTC sales to fund dividends with no margin call risk; STRC preferred stock fell to a new record low below $85.
- Jun 18, 20266Strategy Falls Out of Top 250 US Companies; Saylor Defends Against Systemic Risk Claims
Strategy's market cap fell to $40B dropping it from the top 250 US companies; Saylor publicly defended the firm against systemic risk claims and denied a death spiral.
- Jun 17, 20264US Government Moves Alameda-Linked Crypto; Strategy Preferred Stock Stress
Opinion timeline
Takes over time· 10 takes
Earlier takes (4)
- Sun, Jun 21Hot Take· 9
STRC: Saylor's $48 billion cushion is real — and beside the point
Strategy STRC Preferred Stock Falls Below Par; Saylor Cites $48B Reserve Surplus
Full summary & sources →The $48.3 billion surplus between Strategy's Bitcoin holdings and its total debt is a genuine number. Saylor earned the right to cite it.
But STRC isn't a bet on the balance sheet. It's a preferred stock paying a fixed dividend, funded by a cash reserve that shrank from 24 months of cover to six — in weeks — after Strategy spent $1.5 billion buying back its own convertible notes at a discount.
When the cash buffer collapses that fast, the $48 billion in BTC doesn't rescue you unless you sell it. And the day Strategy sold just 32 Bitcoin to cover a dividend, the stock fell 5.9%.
The market is telling you something: the moment you prove you'll liquidate BTC to service a financial product, the whole story changes. Saylor's surplus is a long-term argument. STRC holders need the next six months.
- Mon, Jun 22First Take· 7
Strategy: the funding is gone, so where is the money coming from?
Strategy Accumulates 716,000+ BTC Since 2022; STRC Preferred Stock Under Pressure
Full summary & sources →His own equity playbook says no new MSTR shares when the stock trades at net asset value. STRC, the preferred stock paying 11.5% annually, has fallen so far below its $100 stated value that the funding channel is effectively closed. Yet Saylor is signalling another buy.
Something has to give. Either he taps the cash reserves — which one analyst called "incredibly reckless" — or the cryptic dots post is a bluff.
The market is watching this closely because there's a harder version of the question underneath: if Strategy buys BTC with cash it needs to service STRC dividends, it's trading the short-term solvency of its financial products against the long-term Bitcoin bet. Those two things were supposed to reinforce each other. Right now they're pulling apart.
- Tue, Jun 23First Take· 8
Strategy: the answer to a question nobody wanted asked
Strategy Buys 520 BTC for $34.9M; USD Reserve Raised to $1.4B
Full summary & sources →520 BTC bought with $300 million raised. The maths tells the story: Saylor diluted shareholders by $300 million and spent $35 million on Bitcoin.
The other $265 million went straight into the cash reserve built to pay STRC dividends — the same reserve that collapsed from 24 months of cover to six after the convertible note buyback. This isn't an accumulation trade. It's a refinancing dressed as one.
The Bitcoin bet is real and long-term. The financial products wrapped around it need feeding every quarter. When those two things are this visibly out of sync, the question isn't whether Saylor believes in Bitcoin. It's whether the machine stays solvent long enough to be proved right.
- Thu, Jun 25First Take· 8
Strategy: the dividend just ate the thesis
Strategy and STRC Under Pressure as Bitcoin Holdings Show $12.6B Unrealized Loss
Full summary & sources →STRC's annualised dividend bill has nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion in six months. The cash reserve to cover it has shrunk to 14 months' worth.
That gap is the whole story right now. Not the $12.6 billion unrealised loss on Bitcoin — unrealised losses are noise for a long-term holder. The problem is that the financial products wrapped around the Bitcoin bet have recurring cash needs that don't wait for Bitcoin to recover.
If Strategy sells MSTR shares to rebuild cash, existing shareholders get diluted. If it raids the cash reserve to keep buying Bitcoin, STRC holders lose their safety net. If it sells Bitcoin, the original thesis visibly cracks.
There is no clean option. That's not a bear case on Bitcoin — it's a structural problem with the machine Saylor built around it.
- Fri, Jun 26First Take· 8
Strategy STRC: the income product that became a Bitcoin tracker
Strategy STRC Slides 26% Below Par; MSTR Hits 16-Month Low as Unrealized BTC Losses Exceed $13B
Full summary & sources →STRC was sold as the boring part of the Strategy machine — a preferred stock pegged to $100, paying reliable monthly dividends, low volatility by design. Its 90-day correlation with Bitcoin has now climbed to 0.70, the highest since it launched. It moves almost in lockstep with the thing it was supposed to buffer you from.
That's not a market tantrum. It's the product telling you what it actually is.
When the only real asset on Strategy's balance sheet is Bitcoin, every instrument wrapped around it eventually becomes a Bitcoin instrument. The dividend stays funded for now — roughly ten months of cash cover remains. But the "steady income" pitch is gone. STRC holders signed up for a coupon; they got crypto exposure with extra steps.
- Mon, Jun 29First Take· 8
Strategy: buying Bitcoin with money you owe someone else
Strategy mNAV Below 1, $13B+ Unrealized BTC Loss; Saylor Posts Bitcoin Tracker Signaling Potential Buy
Full summary & sources →Saylor is signalling another purchase while sitting $13 billion underwater and with only 14 months of dividend cover left in the tank.
The mNAV falling below 1 is the clearest sign yet of the bind: the market now values the whole enterprise at less than the Bitcoin it holds. That makes raising fresh capital — the entire mechanism that funded the accumulation strategy — effectively closed.
So if he buys this week, where is the money coming from? The cash reserve built to pay STRC holders. That's not a Bitcoin trade. That's paying for Bitcoin with money already promised to someone else.
I don't doubt Saylor believes in Bitcoin. But believing in an asset and running a solvent machine around it are two different things. The question right now isn't whether he's right about Bitcoin long-term. It's whether he makes it to long-term.
- Tue, Jun 30First Take· 8
Strategy: Saylor just admitted what the machine needed
Strategy Authorizes Up to $1.25B BTC Sale, Announces $2B Buyback and New Capital Framework
Full summary & sources →Authorising a Bitcoin sale is the tell.
The whole Strategy story was built on one directional bet: borrow cheap, issue equity, stack BTC, never sell. The moment the framework includes a board-approved programme to liquidate up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin — to fund dividends, interest, and buybacks — the structure has openly acknowledged what the prior few weeks made obvious: the financial products wrapped around the Bitcoin bet have claims that come first.
The market shrugged at the BTC sale and celebrated the buyback. That reaction is worth sitting with. It means investors care more about STRC recovering to $100 than about the accumulation thesis staying pure. The machine's creditors are now setting the agenda.
- Thu, Jul 2First Take· 7
Strategy: when the machine starts working again
Strategy and Strive Accumulate 6,989 BTC via Preferred Equity Proceeds in June
Full summary & sources →Strategy and Strive absorbed nearly 7,000 BTC in a single month — without selling a share of common stock, without issuing new debt. The preferred equity engine is running.
But the prior takes on this story have been about the machine straining. STRC trading at a record low of $71. The dividend bill nearly quadrupling. The cash reserve shrinking to 14 months. Those weren't noise.
So what changed? Bitcoin climbed back. At $60–65k, the coverage ratios hold — $3.80 to $4.50 in BTC for every dollar of preferred equity. That cushion is what lets the machine keep buying.
The honest read: this structure works when Bitcoin cooperates and breaks when it doesn't. June was a good month. That's not the same as the machine being fixed.
- Sun, Jul 5Editor’s Take
Strategy's Money Glitch, glitched!
Strategy Introduces Digital Credit Capital Framework, Ending 'Never Sell' Bitcoin Policy
Full summary & sources →They say the "bottom is in when the biggest Bull sells".
Is that is true buckle up for a Bitcoin bull ride soon as the Saylor machine ends it's 'never sell Bitcoin' strategy.
The framing is clever: sell Bitcoin at high prices, buy back discounted MSTR shares, and each remaining share holds a larger slice of the Bitcoin pile.
But the original thesis wasn't 'optimise Bitcoin-per-share.' It was 'never sell.'
The moment that changes, Strategy stops being a one-way accumulation vehicle and becomes a leveraged fund that trades around its core position. The "Infinite Money Glitch" has truly glitched.
- Mon, Jul 6Editor’s Take
The halving is dead, long live BlackRock?
Michael Saylor Releases Bitcoin Tracker Signal, Potentially Preceding Another BTC Purchase
Full summary & sources →Saylor's claim that Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle no longer drives price points at a real number.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust grew from $51.5 billion to $67.4 billion in a single year. When flows that size move with institutional balance sheets, retail-driven supply shocks stop being the main event.
Demand from ordinary investors is being replaced by something that tracks Goldman Sachs' risk appetite.
That's not bearish on Bitcoin. It might even be bullish on price. But the people setting the trajectory now are the same people Saylor himself warns about when he talks about 'paper Bitcoin' and the fight to keep exposure tied to actual coins rather than IOUs.
He's describing a financialisation he helped build, and calling it a feature.